Talking Points
- EUR/USD threatening to trigger a double top
- Crude stalls ahead of pivotal resistance
- USD/CAD range break looming?
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD has come under steady pressure following the latest failure near 1.1040
- However, our near-term trend bias remains positive on EUR/USD while above 1.0685
- A move through 1.1040 is desperately needed to set off a more important push higher in the exchange rate
- A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
- A close under the 61.8% retracement of the mid-March range at 1.0685 would turn us negative on the euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Square.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.0645 | *1.0685 | 1.0730 | 1.0825 | *1.1040 |
Price & Time Analysis: CRUDE
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- CRUDE has marched steadily higher from the cycle turn window in mid-March
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in the commodity while above 47.00
- A move through 54.00 is needed to set off a more important leg higher
- A minor turn window is seen around the end of the week
- A close below 47.00 would turn us negative on the commodity
CRUDE Strategy: Like the long side while over 47.00.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRUDE | *47.00 | 50.00 | 51.60 | 53.00 | *54.00 |
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD
The USD/CAD range continues. The exchange rate teased the market again yesterday as a break of the 1.2830-1.2350 range looked all but inevitable following the move below the trendline connecting the February lows around 1.2435. It clearly was not meant to be, however, as the pair reversed sharply from just above the February lows to trade back towards the middle of the range this morning. Our view on the rate remains generally the same as last week. The wide range reversal on some of the highest volume in years after the FOMC last month is a clear potential negative, but until or unless we convincingly break the range lows at 1.2350 there is really little reason to read too much into this situation and waste precious mental capital. A daily settlement over 1.2830 would obviously turn the outlook much more positive.
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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
