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Price & Time: USD Searching For Trend

Price & Time: USD Searching For Trend

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD Searching For Trend

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD failed again at the start of the week near 1.1040
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in EUR/USD while above 1.0685
  • A move through 1.1040 is needed to set off a more important move higher in the exchange rate
  • A turn window is eyed today
  • A close under the 61.8% retracement of the late March range at 1.0685 would turn us negative on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.0685

1.0800

1.0875

1.0920

*1.1040

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: USD Searching For Trend

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD continues to meander between 1.5000 and 1.4755
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the pound while below 1.5000
  • A move below the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.4755 is needed to confirm a downside resumption in the rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed early next week
  • A close over 1.5000 would turn us positive on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.4755

1.4805

1.4925

*1.5000

1.5050

Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX

Price & Time: USD Searching For Trend

The FXCM US Dollar Index remains one of the key charts to monitor at the moment. The choppiness over the past few weeks highlights well the utter lack of conviction in USD trades since the FOMC meeting last month. Perhaps that was partly the intention? The index has also responded very well at key technical levels during this time as the trendline connecting the December and February lows has been tested twice and the 78.6% retracement of the mid-March decline once. A clear break of one of these levels looks needed to break the impasse and set off a more meaningful directional move. The trendline currently sits at 11,975 while the retracement remains fixed at 12,095. Today/tomorrow looks important from a short-term cyclical standpoint.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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