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Price & Time: Same Old Euro?

Price & Time: Same Old Euro?

2015-04-06 12:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY falls to test Gann support
  • USDOLLAR probes key trendline
  • Next few days look cyclically significant for EUR/USD

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Same Old Euro?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY fell sharply on Friday before finding support at the 3rd square root relationship of the year-to-date high near 118.70
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative on USD/JPY while below 120.60
  • A move under 118.70 is needed to set off a fresh leg lower in the exchange rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed around the middle of the week
  • A close back over the 61.8% retracement of the March range at 120.60 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

118.00

*118.70

119.10

119.50

*120.60

Price & Time Analysis: FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX

Price & Time: Same Old Euro?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • US DOLLAR fell sharply on Friday to test the trendline connecting the December and February lows around 11,950
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the dollar while above 11,950
  • A move back through 12,095 is needed to signal that the broader trend is resuming
  • A turn window is around the middle of the week
  • A close under 11,950 would turn us negative on the Index

FXCM US DOLLAR Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

US DOLLAR

11,930

*11,950

11,980

12,015

*12,095

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Same Old Euro?

Today is a holiday in Europe (Easter Monday). The US is open for business as usual - minus the normal crossover liquidity of course. We have noticed over the years that for whatever reason these partial global holidays often turn into decent inflection points in the FX market. Looking at EUR/USD form a cyclical perspective it looks like if the broader downtrend is going to re-assert itself then sometime around the middle of this week would be the ideal time for it to do so. The downside action early last week troubled us as it looked more influenced by quarter-end forces than cyclical ones. It also couldn’t get past an important Fibonacci level near 1.0700. The move higher after payrolls could very well be the final stages of this correction or just the beginning of a more important move higher in the rate. The action over the next few days should prove very important in determining what is really going on. An upside failure in the exchange rate by Wednesday would argue that the downtrend is indeed trying to re-assert itself. Follow on weakness under 1.0700 would further confirm. On the other hand, continued strength past Wednesday (say north of 1.1100) would signal an important change in cyclical behavior. This would be quite bullish in our view and set the stage for a correction higher lasting at least a few more weeks.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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