Talking Points
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD has traded fairly steadily higher after reversing from a key Gann level related to last year’s high around the middle of the month
- Our near-term trend bias is positive on the euro while above 1.0760
- The highs from last week around 1.1040 remain a clear upside attraction/reaction zone
- A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
- Only weakness below 1.0760 would turn us negative again on the euro.
EUR/USD Strategy: Like buying the euro on dips while 1.0760 holds.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | *1.0760 | 1.0855 | 1.0975 | *1.1040 | 1.1065 |
Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- S&P 500 has stalled again near the key resistance zone between 2108 and 2125
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in in the index while over 2040
- Traction over 2125 is needed to set off a more meaningful push higher in the index
- A very minor turn window is later this week
- A close below 2040 would turn us negative on the index
S&P 500 Strategy: Like the long side while over 2040.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | *2040 | 2069 | 2091 | *2108 | *2125 |
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD
Most of G10 FX looks to be at an important technical juncture given where the US Dollar Index sits. However, USD/CAD is especially starting to standout. After trading to a new 6-year high last week, Funds reversed sharply after the FOMC leaving one of the widest daily ranges in years on the most turnover in years. From a technical standpoint that is a pretty clear red flag of a market in fatigue and prone to a deeper correction. When you factor in that the pair basically failed around the old January highs setting up a possible “double top” the picture gets even more potentially ominous. All that said, we have to say “potentially” because as bad as the chart looks the exchange has yet to do anything seriously wrong. A sequence of higher highs and higher lows defines an uptrend and so far USD/CAD has maintained that despite all the negatives we have mentioned. A break of the February lows around 1.2360 is needed to definitively change things and usher in the more negative regime we fear. A move back over 1.2610 is needed to alleviate some of the immediate downside pressure, but only a close back over 1.2715 would signal that the exchange rate is trying to resume the broader uptrend.
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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
