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Price & Time: Volatile April?

Price & Time: Volatile April?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist


Talking Points

  • USD/JPY trying to hold above key support
  • GBP/USD consolidates below key retracement
  • S&P 500 testing key resistance zone again

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY is in consolidation mode above the 50-day moving average near 119.30
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive while above 119.30
  • A move through 121.20 is needed to re-instill upside momentum in the exchange rate
  • Very minor turn windows are seen on Tuesday and Friday
  • A close below 119.30 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Square.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USDremains in consolidation mode below the 1.4985 38% retracement of the February-March range
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while above 1.4720
  • Traction over 1.4985 is now needed to set off a new push higher in Cable
  • A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
  • A close below 1.4720 would turn us negative on the pound again

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.4720.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

US equity indices have responded well to the positive period we highlighted a couple of weeks back. Call it what you will, but the indices have had a very clear tendency to rally or at least attempt one as the end of a quarter approaches. With ‘triple witching’ now out of the way we will see if this clears the path for a more meaningful push higher. A convergence of Gann and Fibonacci levels between 2108 and 2125 in the S&P 500 has proven formidable resistance over the past month or so and traction above this zone is now needed to set off any sort of ‘run for the roses’ into the end of the month. However, we would caution against getting too positive on the market should this occur as April looks quite interesting from a cyclical perspective as a variety of key relationships will be converging throughout the month. We think at a minimum this should lead to a decent uptick in volatility. Only aggressive weakness below 2040 would signal that the higher volatility period we are expecting in April has already begun.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.