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Price & Time: Second Half of March Key For Equity Indices

Price & Time: Second Half of March Key For Equity Indices

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY is in consolidation mode below 122.00
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive while above 120.00
  • A move through 122.00 is now needed to signal that the exchange rate is emabrking on a new leg higher
  • A minor turn window is eyed around the middle of next week
  • A close below 120.00 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while above 120.00

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
USD/JPY*120.00120.80121.00121.65*122.00

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD touched its lowest level in almost a year and a half yesterday before finding support around the 5th square rooot relationship of the February high near 1.4925
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while below 1.5140
  • Traction under 1.4925 is now needed to set off a new leg lower in the pound
  • A very minor turn window is seen tomorrow
  • A close above 1.5140 would turn us positive on GBP/USD

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.5140.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
GBP/USD*1.49251.49501.50001.50501.5140

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

The S&P 500 has come under some steady pressure over the past week or so. It is too early to tell the significance of the high recorded late last month, but it is worth noting that it did come during a nice convergence of several short-term cyclical relationships. The next few weeks should be very telling as the period leading into quarter-end often times has a funny way of seeing uptrends in equities try to re-assert themselves. Take a look at the price action from last December in the SPX if you need a reminder. If stocks can’t turn up during this key period then this will be an important change in behavior that signals a more significant correction is unfolding. The 200-day moving average just above 2000 in the SPX is likely to be a critical support/pivot area.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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