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Price & Time: Waiting For Follow-Through in EUR/USD

Price & Time: Waiting For Follow-Through in EUR/USD

2015-02-23 13:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Downtrend trying to re-emerge in EUR/USD?
  • USD/JPY holds key Gann level
  • AUD/USD fails near key resistance

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Waiting For Follow-Through in EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode above the 3rd square root relationship of the 2014 high near 118.40
  • Our near-term trend bias remains positive while above 118.40
  • Interim resistance is seen around 119.65, but a move through 120.80 is really needed to signal that a more meaningful extension higher is underway
  • A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
  • A close below 118.40 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while 118.40 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

117.95

*118.40

119.10

119.65

*120.80

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Price & Time: Waiting For Follow-Through in EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD remains in consolidation mode below the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low near .7885
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below .7885
  • The year’s closing low around .7715 remains a key downside pivot with weakness below needed to signal a resumption of the broader trend
  • A minor turn window is eyed mid-week
  • A close above .7885 would turn us positive on the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .7885.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*.7715

.7760

.7790

.7840

*.7885

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Waiting For Follow-Through in EUR/USD

Choppy trade continues in EUR/USD. The pair did stall out during the key cyclical period we highlighted around the middle of last week, but so far declines have been held in check by Gann support around 1.1270. A clear break of this level is desperately needed to signal that the broader downtrend is indeed trying to re-assert itself. The 61.8% retracement of the all-time low and all-time high around 1.1210 is also key in this regard. Last week’s highs around 1.1450 should not be breached if the downtrend is resuming like we suspect, but it would really take a push through 1.1515 to signal that a more important move higher in the euro is unfolding.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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