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Price & Time: Waiting On A Catalyst To Break Away From Recent Ranges

Price & Time: Waiting On A Catalyst To Break Away From Recent Ranges

2015-02-05 13:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD stalls near key moving average
  • GOLD holds above important retracement
  • S&P 500 rebounds sharply from 200-day moving average

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Waiting On A Catalyst To Break Away From Recent Ranges

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD stalled its recovery near the 20-day moving average on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias remains positive while above 1.1210
  • The 1.1530 area is now key resistance with traction above this level needed to trigger a new leg higher in the rate
  • A very minor turn window is seen around the middle of next week
  • A close under 1.1210 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1210.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.1210

1.1300

1.1410

1.1480

*1.1535

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: Waiting On A Catalyst To Break Away From Recent Ranges

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GOLD remains in consolidation mode above the 38% retracement of the year-to-date range
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1286
  • A move under 1250 is needed kick off a more serious correction in the metal
  • A minor turn window is eyed early next week
  • A close over 1286 would turn us positive on Gold again

GOLD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GOLD

*1250

1260

1263

1275

*1286

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

Price & Time: Waiting On A Catalyst To Break Away From Recent Ranges

The S&P 500 remains choppy. As noted last week we are looking for a break of the year’s opening range to set off the next real directional move in the index. Interestingly the index got to within about 3 handles of the yearly opening range low on Monday before reversing sharply ahead of the widely followed 200-day moving average. It can be argued that the price action over the past few weeks is taking more the shape of a bullish consolidation instead of a top, but a move through 2067 is needed to confirm this notion and set the stage for a run north of 2100. Any weakness under the 200-day moving average (currently around 1980) would turn the technical picture very negative.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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