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Price & Time: USD/JPY Continues to Tease

Price & Time: USD/JPY Continues to Tease

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD stalls at key Gann level
  • Gold tests key Fib retracement
  • USD/JPY probes multi-week range

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode below the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.1415
  • Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the euro while above 1.1210
  • A push above the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.1415 is needed to set off a new leg higher
  • A very minor turn window is seen tomorrow
  • A close under 1.1210 would turn us negative on the euro again

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1210.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
EUR/USD*1.12101.12601.1335*1.14151.1520

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GOLD tested the 38% retracement of the January range last week before rebounding
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1286
  • A move under 1253 is needed to set off a more serious decline
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
  • A close above 1286 would turn us positive again on XAU/USD

GOLD Strategy: Square.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2
GOLD*125312701281*12861306

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

USD/JPY continues to perplex. The pair started the week with a sharp break to the downside and below the 117.20 range extreme of the past few weeks. This weakness proved short lived, however, as the pair reversed sharply by the start of European trade to settle back into the middle of the narrow range that has defined trading these past few weeks. Our thoughts haven’t changed too much from last week in the sense that we are basically still waiting for a clear break of the range to set off the next real directional move. We think today’s close could help shed some light on the pair and that potential move as a close under 117.20 would warn that a more serious move to the downside is indeed starting to play out. A daily settlement back into the middle of the range (say north of 118.00) would suggest today’s foray to the downside was false. As we have mentioned before some of the best moves in FX stem from false breaks. As such this would probably be a pretty bullish development.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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