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Price & Time: Regime Change In Gold

Price & Time: Regime Change In Gold

2015-01-22 12:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Calm before the storm in EUR/USD?
  • USD/JPY consolidation continues
  • Gold regaining its safe haven status?

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Regime Change In Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USDis in consolidation mode above 1.5550
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1.1755
  • A close under 1.1550 is needed to confirm that a new leg lower is underway
  • A major cyclical turn window in the euro is seen Friday/early next week
  • A close over 1.1755 would turn us positive on the euro.

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1755.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.1460

*1.1550

1.1620

1.1635

*1.1755

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Regime Change In Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPYcontinues to consolidate around 118.00
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive while above 117.40
  • Interim resistance is seen at 118.70 ahead of a critical pivot at 119.70
  • A minor turn window is eyed around the end of the week
  • A close under 117.40 would turn us negative again on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

116.90

*117.40

117.70

118.00

*118.70

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

Price & Time: Regime Change In Gold

Gold should be an interesting instrument to watch during the ECB circus later today. The metal has been on an impressive run of late rallying some 10% since the start of the year and even more so in non-dollar terms. What is the metal trying to tell us? My general view of gold is that is trades in three basic regimes which are commodity, currency and somewhere in between. The move in gold over the past month against most other currencies suggests that the metal is trying to make the transition back into being viewed as a currency again. This is important and usually a precursor to financial market volatility and also somewhat fitting coming in the aftermath of the SNB decision last week as the nominal high in Gold coincided with the announcement of the 1.2000 floor in EUR/CHF. After a brief “war” on them, safe havens seem to coming back! How gold settles today and the week should give us a good indication of just how well the ECB has done. I’m starting to think of gold as a CDS on central banks.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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