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Price & Time: A Central Bank Blinks

Price & Time: A Central Bank Blinks

2015-01-15 13:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD drops to lowest level since 2003
  • USD/JPY near important downside pivot
  • SNB removes 1.2000 Floor in EUR/CHF

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: A Central Bank Blinks

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD touched its lowest level since 2003 earlier this morning
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the euro while below 1.1880
  • The 1.1640 area is now a key near-term pivot with weakness below this level needed trigger the next serious push lower
  • A medium-term turn window is eyed tomorrow, but a more significant turn date is seen later this week
  • A close over 1.1880 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1880.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.1600

*1.1640

1.1680

1.1725

*1.1880

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: A Central Bank Blinks

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 5th square root relationship of the 2014 high at 116.35
  • A near-term trend bias is negative on the rate while below 118.00
  • A close below 116.35 is needed to signal the start of a more important push lower
  • A minor turn window is eyed late this week/early next week
  • A close above 118.00 will turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 118.00.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

115.55

*116.35

116.60

116.95

*118.00

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/CHF

Price & Time: A Central Bank Blinks

The big debate over the past few years has been about bubbles and whether we are seeing them in bonds, stocks and various other instruments. It seems the various financial collapses over the past 17 years have somehow made people more attuned to the boom-bust cycle of the financial markets. A common response I get from people whenever we engage in this “great debate” is that if everybody is looking for a bubble it probably really isn’t one. As a general contrarian I am sympathetic to this line of thinking, but I think it is totally wrong. The bubbles we are experiencing in various markets are really just a byproduct of a much bigger bubble in central banking. The belief in central banks and their ability to manipulate asset market trends at will most certainly has been at or near all-time highs over the past few months and in this bubble I can almost guarantee that nobody is looking for it. Ask just about anybody about a “freely” trade instrument these days and it will begin with “Well, the Fed (or ECB or BOJ or PBOC or SNB, etc) is doing this…”. Central banks are the only game in town. I like to think of myself as a pretty die hard member of the “Austrian School”. I don’t think primary market trends can be manipulated indefinitely and like all bubbles I believe this one will eventually crumble. I was starting to have my doubts as to when, but today’s 35 big figure fiasco in the Swiss Franc has ironically restored my faith in markets. The primary trend reasserted itself with a vengeance!

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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