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Price & Time: USD/JPY Topping Out Or Just Consolidating?

Price & Time: USD/JPY Topping Out Or Just Consolidating?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist


Talking Points

  • EUR/USD records another multi-year low
  • GBP/USD rebounds off key retracement
  • USD/JPY nearing key downside pivot

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD recorded a new low for the year this morning as spot fell briefly to test the 2.618 extension of the mid-December recovery
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the euro while below 1.1880
  • The 1.1750 area remains a key near-term pivot with weakness below this level on a close basis needed to trigger the next leg lower in the exchange rate
  • A medium-term turn window is seen into the end of the week
  • A close over 1.1880 would turn us positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.1880.

InstrumentSupport 2Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD has moved higher over the past few days after failing to close below the 1.5180 88.6% retracement of the 2013-2014 advance last week
  • A close over 1.5160 will turn us positive on the pound
  • Traction below 1.5080 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the exchange rate
  • A minor turn window is seen later this week

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while 1.5160 holds (closing basis).

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Focus Chart of the Day:

The cyclical inflection point we highlighted in late December has proven to be a pretty good one as the exchange rate has traded pretty steadily lower since then. This morning the exchange rate fell to its lowest level in almost a month before rebounding ahead of the 5th square root relationship of the 2014 high at 116.35. This 116.35 level should prove to be an important pivot in the near-term as a daily close beneath this level would help confirm a broader topping pattern and set the stage for a more serious decline in the weeks ahead. The 50% retracement of the mid-December decline coincides with the 1x2 Gann angle line of last year’s high between 118.70/80. Traction above this zone is needed to relieve some of the more immediate downside pressure. Such strength would also raise the possibility that the action over the past month and half has only been a consolidation within the broader trend. Next week looks potentially significant for spot from a medium-term cyclical perspective.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.