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Price & Time: EUR/JPY Rebounds Off Key Convergence

Price & Time: EUR/JPY Rebounds Off Key Convergence

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist


Talking Points

  • USD/JPY unable to convincingly crack 118.50
  • Gold tests neckline of inverse H&S pattern
  • EUR/JPY tests 200-day moving average

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in a sideways to lower range below 120.80
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in USD/JPY while below 120.80
  • A close under 118.50 is needed to confirm the start of a new leg lower in the rate
  • A minor turn window is seen today ahead of a more important one around the end of the week
  • A close over 120.80 would turn us positive on the dollar again

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 120.80.

InstrumentSupport 2Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GOLD traded at its highest level in over a month today
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while over 1166
  • A close over 1227 is needed to confirm the start of a more meaningful push higher in the metal
  • A minor turn window is seen later this week
  • A close under 1166 would turn us negative on the metal

GOLD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1166.

InstrumentSupport 2 Support 1SpotResistance 1Resistance 2

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/JPY

January has a reputation for being one of the more difficult months to trade. I have always attributed part of this to the fact that P&Ls reset for the institutional community. As a cyclical analyst January is always difficult because of all the holidays in December. How does one account for them? One of the primary methods I use (especially in the short-term) is counting daily bars and looking for certain harmonic relationships. With Europe, the US and Japan closed or only half trading for several days at the end of December I have never really been sure how to account for this time “slippage”. I usually just expand the time periods by a few days to account for the partial days of trading, but how much is always a bit of a guess. Using this method EUR/JPY is at an interesting juncture today with respect to the December 8th high, but further clouding the picture is the fact that today is another Japanese holiday. Perhaps more interesting is price and the levels where EUR/JPY has turned around as today’s low came from just under a confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the October-December advance and the 200-day moving average. A close over 141.00 would confirm that at least a temporary low is in place, while weakness under 140.00 would invalidate the burgeoning positive cyclical view and refocus lower.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for

To contact Kristian, e-mail Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.