Talking Points
- Key cyclical period coming up for USD/JPY
- EUR/USD back under 1.1900
- GBP/USD breaks major Fibonacci retracement
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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD gapped under the bottom of the 1-year 2nd standard deviation channel on Monday to trade at its lowest level in almost nine years
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in EUR/USD while below 1.2000
- A square root relationship related to the year’s high at 1.1875 is a key near-term pivot with traction below needed to set up a move towards 1.1800
- An medium-term turn window is seen later this week
- A close over 1.2000 would turn us positive on the euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Historically extreme levels of negative sentiment heading into the turn window later this week give us cause for concern. While short positions are favored under 1.2000, we like reducing them heading into the end of the week.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1850 | *1.1875 | 1.1895 | 1.1970 | *1.2000 |
Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD closed under the 78.6% retracement of the 2013-2014 advance on Monday
- Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1.5380
- Interim support is seen at 1.5180 ahead of the next key retracement at 1.5085
- A turn window of some importance is eyed later this week
- A close over 1.5380 would turn us positive on Cable
GBP/USD Strategy: Like holding only reduced short positions while below 1.5380.
| Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | *1.5085 | 1.5180 | 1.5195 | 1.5275 | *1.5380 |
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY
The cyclical relationships we highlighted last month in USD/JPY seem to be having a decent influence as the exchange rate made its recent 120.81 high on the 23rd of December (right in the middle of the key turn period). Weakness so far has been fairly limited and we really need to see 119.40 give way on a closing basis to have any sort of conviction that a secondary high is more securely in place. Clouding the picture somewhat is the approach of another important cyclical period starting on Friday. We have been open to a final push higher into this period (though even if 120.80 gets surpassed during this time we suspect a secondary high will just form closer to 122.00). Failure to surpass 120.80 in the positive period we see over the next few days or outright weakness in the exchange rate would further cement the notion that a secondary high has already been witnessed. Strength after the middle of next week over 122.00 would completely invalidate our broader negative cyclical view.
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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
