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Price & Time: Secondary High In USD/JPY?

Price & Time: Secondary High In USD/JPY?

2014-12-30 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY reverses sharply from Fibonacci level
  • EUR/USD probes key long-term retracement level
  • GBP/USD records a new low close for the year

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Secondary High In USD/JPY?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD fell to a new 2-year low this morning before finding support just under the 50% retracement of the 2000-2008 advance in the 1.2135 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while below 1.2240
  • A close under 1.2135 is needed to set off the next leg lower in the exchange rate
  • A minor turn window is seen today and early next week
  • A close over 1.2240 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.2240

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.2115

*1.2135

1.2155

1.2190

*1.2240

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: Secondary High In USD/JPY?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USDrecorded a new low close for the year on Monday
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1.5625
  • A move though 1.5480 is needed to force a new round of weakness in the rate
  • Minor turn windows are eyed today and early next week
  • A close over 1.5625 would turn us positve on the pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.5625.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5415

*1.5480

1.5530

1.5560

*1.5625

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Secondary High In USD/JPY?

USD/JPY came under pretty aggressive pressure overnight as spot seems to have responded to the cyclical relationships we highlighted last week (Read HERE). A daily close under 119.40 is now needed as this would be seen as initial confirmation of a “secondary high” and help set the stage for a more important decline around the start of the year. The near-term picture is complicated somewhat by the fact that Japan and most of the world is on holiday for the next few days, but as long as 120.80 holds the burgeoning negative structure will remain intact. A move through 120.80 would re-focus higher.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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