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Price & Time: Focus Turns to Key Long-Term Retracement in EUR/USD

Price & Time: Focus Turns to Key Long-Term Retracement in EUR/USD

2014-12-22 13:26:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Important Gann cluster overhead in USD/JPY
  • Range break needed in GBP/USD
  • Sentiment a drag on further euro weakness?

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Focus Turns to Key Long-Term Retracement in EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has moved steadily higher over the past few days since finding support from just above the 38% retracement of the October low
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 117.40
  • A confluence of Gann and Fibonacci levels around 120.50 suggests this should be the next important action/reaction area
  • An important turn window is eyed tomorrow
  • A close back under 117.40 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Look to buy on dips while above 117.40.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*117.40

118.50

119.75

120.10

*120.50

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: Focus Turns to Key Long-Term Retracement in EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USDregistered a new low for the year last week, but has since rallied back into the middle of the month-long range
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative while below 1.5790
  • A close under 1.5540 is needed to confirm the start of a more important leg lower
  • A minor turn window is eyed on Tuesday
  • A close over 1.5790 would turn us posiitve on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Like selling into strength while below 1.5790.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5370

*1.5540

1.5610

1.5675

*1.5790

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Focus Turns to Key Long-Term Retracement in EUR/USD

EUR/USD has managed to buck the historically positive seasonality of late December with aggressive weakness over the past few days taking the exchange rate to new lows for the year. The resumption of the broader trend has come earlier than we were expecting and has caught us a bit by surprise. We are now open to the possibility of a cyclical inversion early next year. Attention now turns to the next major downside pivot around 1.2135 as this marks the 50% retracement of the all-time low and the all-time high in the euro. Traction under this level in the weeks ahead would signal the start of a more important run lower in the exchange rate. A potential positive for the euro is the sentiment picture which saw the DSI fall to just 6% bulls on Friday. Extreme negative sentiment has accompanied every break to new lows over the past few months and warns too many traders are looking for the same thing. However, the next cyclical turn window of significance is not seen until closer to year-end.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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