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Price & Time: Important Timing Relationship Beckons USD/JPY

Price & Time: Important Timing Relationship Beckons USD/JPY

2014-12-18 13:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Secondary high next week in USD/JPY
  • EUR/USD test year’s closing low
  • GBP/USD touches a new low for the year

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Important Timing Relationship Beckons USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under renewed pressure testing the year’s low close this morning
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in EUR/USD while below 1.2400
  • The 15th square root relationship of the year’s high around 1.2235 is the next key downside pivot
  • A minor turn window is eyed today
  • A close back above 1.2400 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

EUR/USD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2335

1.2280

1.2305

*1.2400

1.2460

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: Important Timing Relationship Beckons USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD fell to a new low for the year on Wednesday
  • Our near-term trned bias is negative while below 1.5790
  • A close under 1.5540 is needed to confirm the start of a more important leg lower
  • A minor turn window is eyed today
  • A close over 1.5790 would turn us posiitve on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Like selling into strength while below 1.5790.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5370

*1.5540

1.5650

1.5675

*1.5790

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Important Timing Relationship Beckons USD/JPY

A confluence of long-term cyclical relationships early next week in USD/JPY suggests this period will be significant for the exchange rate in a timing sense. With USD/JPY having reversed from the other turn window we highlighted at the start of the month we had assumed that spot would just selloff in between and form a low next week then turn back up. This could still play out, but the reversal over the past couple of days introduces the possibility that we see a secondary high next week and USD/JPY comes under pressure thereafter. Resistance levels to monitor for a potential reaction are 119.50, 120.70 and of course the year-to-date high near 121.85. New highs anytime after Christmas would be a very bullish development. The next big turn window after next week is the beginning of January.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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