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Price & Time: GBP/USD Trying to Break From the Range?

Price & Time: GBP/USD Trying to Break From the Range?

2014-12-17 13:45:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Positive seasonality coming up in the pound
  • EUR/USD cracks Gann resistance
  • Crude closing in on important retracement

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: GBP/USD Trying to Break From the Range?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY fell sharply lower yesterday to trade at its lowest level in almost a month
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in USD/JPY while below 117.40
  • Important support is eyed at 115.45 and 115.00 and weakness below these levels is needed to prompt a much more serious unwind
  • A minor turn window is seen around the end of the week/Start of next week
  • A close above 117.40 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while under 117.40. May look to stop and reverse on a close above.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*115.45

116.35

117.10

*117.40

118.10

Price & Time Analysis: CRUDE

Price & Time: GBP/USD Trying to Break From the Range?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • CRUDE fell to a new five year low on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the commodity while below 57.25
  • The 78.6% retracement of the 2008-2011 advance and the bottom of the 1-year standard deviation channel at 53.00/51.50 looks like the next major potential reaction zone
  • Times cycles suggest the first half of next week could prove important for oil
  • A close over 57.25 would shift immediate attention higher

CRUDE Strategy: Like holding only a reduced short position while under 57.25.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

CRUDE

51.50

*53.00

55.00

*57.25

59.10

Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD

Price & Time: GBP/USD Trying to Break From the Range?

There hasn’t been much to say about Cable over the past few weeks as the exchange rate has been stuck in a very choppy range. Divergences in OBV and momentum have been warning that the downtrend is in fatigue, but upside attempts have been limited so far. On Tuesday, spot did manage to close above the trendline connecting the late September and October highs and this is the first real positive development for the pound in quite sometime. Immediate focus now is on 1.5780 as traction above there would trigger a minor inverse H&S pattern on the daily setting the stage for a more serious correction higher into year-end. Like in the euro, the second half of December is historically one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year for GBP. A move back under 1.5600 would invalidate the near-term positive technical tone that has been developing over the past few days.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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