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Price & Time: Crude Reprieve Ahead?

Price & Time: Crude Reprieve Ahead?

2014-12-15 13:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Crude sentiment at contrarian extremes
  • Key week ahead for EUR/USD
  • AUD/USD touches a new low for the year

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Crude Reprieve Ahead?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has moved steadily higher since finding support early last week ahead of the 15th square root relationship of the year’s high in the 1.2250 area
  • A daily close over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.2470 will turn us positive on the exchange rate
  • Weakness below 1.2360 is needed to reinstill downside momentum in the euro
  • A very minor turn window is eyed on tomorrow/Wednesday

EUR/USD Strategy: Flat. Aggressive traders could look to buy on weakness into Wednesday.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2360

1.2415

1.2425

*1.2470

1.2495

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Price & Time: Crude Reprieve Ahead?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD fell to a new low for the year on Monday before rebounding again off a median line related to the 2013 high
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .8405
  • A close under .8205 is needed to set off a new leg lower in the rate
  • A turn window of some importance is eyed right here
  • A close above .8405 would turn us positive on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Like holding only a reduced short position until after this turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

.8125

*.8205

.8225

.8280

*.8405

Focus Chart of the Day: CRUDE

Price & Time: Crude Reprieve Ahead?

The collapse in crude over the past few weeks has been perhaps the most talked about event in the financial markets. Not surprisingly sentiment towards the commodity has gotten decimated during this time with the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) falling to 3% bulls on Friday. Readings under 10% usually are indicative of a trend that is getting overdone, while readings under 5% are hallmarks of extreme pessimism. From a contrarian perspective this suggests the decline in crude is nearing some sort of reprieve in the near-term. The big questions obviously are when and where? Clearly impossible to know, but we have a few guesses. Our analysis of cycles and other timing methods suggests that early next week (give or take a few days) is potentially important for Crude and a timeframe in which a decent reversal can take place. However, with sentiment at such extremes we must confess we have doubts as to whether the decline can persist that long. If we do get another leg down, the lower 50’s does look interesting as the 78.6% retracement of the 2008-2011 advance and the bottom of the 1-year (3rd) standard deviation channel both reside there.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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