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Price & Time: USD/JPY - What Next?

Price & Time: USD/JPY - What Next?

2014-12-11 13:35:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY rebounds off important support zone
  • AUD/USD enters key cyclical turn window
  • EUR/USD test major upside pivot

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY - What Next?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has moved steadily higher over the past few days after finding good support around 15th square root relationship of the years high in the 1.2240 area
  • A daily close over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.2470 will turn us positive on the exchange rate
  • Weakness below 1.2360 is needed to reinstill downside momentum in the rate
  • A very minor turn window is eyed on Friday

EUR/USD Strategy: Flat.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2360

1.2415

1.2460

*1.2470

1.2495

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY - What Next?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD is in consolidation mode above a median line from the 2013 high at .8215
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .8405
  • A close under .8215 is needed to set off a new leg lower in the rate
  • A turn window of some importance is eyed over the next day or so
  • A close above .8405 would turn us positive on AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Like reducing short positions into this cyclical turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*.8215

.8280

.8280

.8340

*.8405

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: USD/JPY - What Next?

The almost euphoric extremes in sentiment we have been writing about in USD/JPY over the past few weeks have finally taken their toll as the exchange rate has come under considerable pressure over the past few days. The big question now is this just going to be a quick multi-day affair or something longer and more sinister? This morning USD/JPY found support exactly where it should have if this is just going to be a quick cleansing as the decline stopped right at the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 117.40. The move higher in USD/JPY since 2011 has been littered with perfect square root corrective moves (February 2013 was exactly 4 square roots) so if the dollar uptrend is really set to resume then we wouldn’t really expect to see 117.40 tested again. As such, a move back down in the next few days or hours under 117.40 would turn things quite negative and open the way for a much more serious decline in the weeks (and dare we say months) ahead. A daily settlement back over 119.60 is now needed to undermine the near-term negative technical structure that has developed over the past few days. The end of next week/start of the week of December 22nd remains critical from a timing/cyclical perspective.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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