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Price & Time: 4-Year Low in AUD/USD

Price & Time: 4-Year Low in AUD/USD

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY stalls under 119.00
  • Gold nearing key upside pivot
  • AUD/USD cracks key long-term retracement level

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: 4-Year Low in AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY is in consolidation mode below 119.00
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while above 116.80
  • The 119.00 area is interim resistance ahead of the next key Gann pivot at 119.50 and a long term retracement zone at 120.25
  • The next turn window of significance is eyed early next month
  • A close under 116.80 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 116.80.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*116.80

117.40

117.95

119.00

*119.50

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: 4-Year Low in AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GOLD has moved steadily higher since finding support at the start of the month near the measured move of the March-June decline in the 1135 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the metal while below 1212
  • A close back under 1175 is needed to re-instill downside momentum
  • A cyclical turn window is eyed around the middle of next week
  • A close above 1212 would turn us more constructive on the metal

GOLD Strategy: Square

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GOLD

1155

*1175

1199

*1212

1232

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

Price & Time: 4-Year Low in AUD/USD

AUD/USD cracked the 50% retracement of the 2008-2011 advance at .8540 earlier this morning to trade at its lowest level in four years. We had seen risk for some further consolidation following last week’s reversal given it came during a key cyclical period, but the inability of the Aussie to maintain gains following the surprise Chinese interest rate cut announcement coupled with the break of such a key long-term retracement level has effectively negated the positive cyclicality. A daily settlement under .8540/30 will be further confirmation of a downside resumption and should set the stage for steeper decline into the middle of next month. Only unexpected aggressive strength back through .8700 would undermine the negative structure.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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