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Price & Time: EUR/USD Fails At Key Gann Resistance

Price & Time: EUR/USD Fails At Key Gann Resistance

2014-11-17 13:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Next 24 hours an important near-term cyclical inflection point for EUR/USD
  • USD/CHF holds key support zone
  • USD/JPY probes 117.00

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: EUR/USD Fails At Key Gann Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY briefly traded over 117.00 this morning before turning lower
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in the exchange rate while above 114.85
  • A trendline connecting the August and early Septembr highs near 117.00 is interim resistance ahead of more important Gann/Fibonacci objectives at 117.40 and 118.00
  • Early December is the next turn window of signficance
  • A close below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 114.85 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 114.85.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*114.85

115.45

116.20

117.05

*118.00

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

Price & Time: EUR/USD Fails At Key Gann Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF fell to its lowest level in over two weeks earlier today before finding support ahead of the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high in the .9540 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/CHF while above .9540
  • The October high near .9690 is interim resistance, but a move through .9740 is really required to signal that USD/CHF has resumed its broader trend
  • A minor turn window is eyed today
  • A close under the 2nd square root relationship of last week’s high at .9540 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9540.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*.9540

.9600

.9610

.9690

*.9740

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: EUR/USD Fails At Key Gann Resistance

From a near-term cyclical perspective the next day or so should prove important for EUR/USD and shed some light on direction. We have been looking for the euro to turn back down around this time and this morning’s failure in the rate from just under the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.2580 bodes well for this view. Follow on weakness tomorrow under today’s low (whatever it proves to be) will be a strong sign that the downtrend is indeed resuming. This would then set the stage for a test of the year’s 1.2356 low. However, unexpected aggressive strength over 1.2580 after today would invalidate the near-term negative cyclical view and warn the current upside correction has at least a few more days to run.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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