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Price & Time: GBP/USD Not in the "Free & Clear" Just Yet

Price & Time: GBP/USD Not in the "Free & Clear" Just Yet

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Minor turn windows coming up in EUR/USD
  • USD/CHF in consolidation mode below key Gann level
  • Cable at new lows for 2014, but key support awaits

Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode above last week’s low
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative in the euro while under 1.2580
  • Interim support is eyed around 1.2400, but weakness under 1.2355 is really needed to signal the start of a new leg lower in the exchange rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed today and early next week
  • A close over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.2580 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like selling on strength against 1.2580.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2355

1.2400

1.2460

1.2500

*1.2580

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF traded at its highest level in 16 months last week before encountering resistance at the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 high near .9740
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/CHF while above .9540
  • The October high near .9690 is interim resistance, but a move through .9740 is really required to signal that USD/CHF has resumed its broader trend
  • A minor turn window is eyed today and early next week
  • A close under the 2nd square root relationship of last week’s high at .9540 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9540.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*.9540

.9635

.9640

.9690

*.9740

Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD

Cable closed at a new low for the year on Wednesday following a rather dovish Quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England. The move lower over the past month or so has been a peculiar one as wide range breaks to the downside (at new yearly lows) have all been followed by several days of immediate upside. We will see if GBP/USD can buck that trend this time around. As decisive as yesterday’s action seems to have been we really need to see how the pair reacts at key support between 1.5680 and 1.5750 as this area marks a convergence of the 11th square root relationship of the year’s high, the 61.8% retracement of the 2013-2014 advance and the 161.8% extension of the mid-October range. A clear break of this zone will get us more excited about the prospects of a more import downside run and perhaps more importantly alleviate our nagging concern that the action over the past few weeks has just been part of some sort of bullish “falling wedge” pattern.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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