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Price & Time: More Room to Run in USD Correction?

Price & Time: More Room to Run in USD Correction?

2014-11-10 13:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD rebounds just ahead of key Gann level
  • GBP/USD finds support at near-term Fib extension
  • S&P 500 at key near-term cyclical juncture

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: More Room to Run in USD Correction?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD fell to a new low for the year on Friday before findng support just ahead of the 13th square root relationship of the year’s high in the 1.2350 area
  • A daily close over 1.2580 will turn us positive on the euro
  • Weakness below 1.2350 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the exchange rate
  • A minor turn window was seen Friday

EUR/USD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.2400

*1.2450

1.2485

1.2500

*1.2550

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: More Room to Run in USD Correction?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD traded to a new low for the year on Friday before rebounding off the 127% extension of the late October range
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while under 1.6020
  • The next downside pivot of significance looks to be around 1.5720 with a move through there needed to trigger a more important decline in the pound
  • A minor turn window is eyed later this week
  • A close over 1.6020 would undermine the immediate negative tone in the pound

Crude Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.6020.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.5720

1.5780

1.5890

*1.6020

*1.6180

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

Price & Time: More Room to Run in USD Correction?

A key couple of days are coming up for the S&P 500. Near-term cyclical analysis and some other timing techniques suggest the index is vulnerable to a turnaround during this two day period. The key level to monitor over this timeframe looks to be the 2038 level. This is the 5th square root relationship of the October low and a natural potential stopping point. Failure to gain much traction over 2038 in the days ahead should confirm the cyclical relevance of the first half of the week and set the stage for a decent counter-trend move lower. A close, on the other hand, well above 2038 would under undermine the potential negative cycle and shift focus higher and on a push towards the next key resistance at 2077/80.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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