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Price & Time: Less Headwinds in the Aussie?

Price & Time: Less Headwinds in the Aussie?

2014-11-06 13:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD waiting on a catalyst
  • GBP/USD rebounds off key Gann level
  • AUD/USD breaks down from multi-week consolidation

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Less Headwinds in the Aussie?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has been in consolidation mode since recording a new low for the year on Monday
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while under 1.2580
  • A close under 1.2440 is needed to confirm a downside resumtion and set the stage for a neg leg lower
  • A minor turn window is seen Friday/Monday
  • A daily close over 1.2580 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.2580.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.2400

*1.2440

1.2515

*1.2580

1.2640

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: Less Headwinds in the Aussie?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD traded to a new low for the year yesterday before settling back into the middle of the month-long range
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while under 1.6020
  • A close under the 10th square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.5980 is needed to set off a more significant decline in the rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed early next week
  • A close over 1.6020 would undermine the immediate negative tone in the pound

Crude Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.6020.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5820

*1.5980

1.5940

*1.6020

*1.6180

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

Price & Time: Less Headwinds in the Aussie?

The sentiment picture in most of the European currencies and the yen is a bit of a concern for us at the moment as it seems too many people are expecting the same thing. Historically this leads to flush out. They don’t need to happen, but it is a risk. We like the dollar generally though. Looking across the developed spectrum AUD/USD is one of the pairs that makes the most sense to us as it doesn’t have the sentiment headwinds that a lot of the other main pairs do. On Monday the pair broke down from a multi-week consolidation. The subsequent re-test of the breakdown point has been followed by new yearly lows in Aussie and the rate looks like it could be starting a meaningful leg lower. Cyclical analysis suggests we could see some backfilling in the days ahead, but the trend is now clear with the path of least resistance lower. Only unexpected aggressive strength back through .8760 would makes us question the broader negative view.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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