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Price & Time: Big Day For the Buck

Price & Time: Big Day For the Buck

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD gaining ground heading into FOMC
  • GOLD looking for direction
  • Cyclical inflection point here for US Dollar Index

Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Big Day For the Buck

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has moved steadily higher over the past few days after finding support last week near the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low in the 1.2605 area
  • Our near-term bias is positive on the exchange rate while above 1.2585
  • However, a move over Gann resistance at 1.2835 is really need to setup any sort of meaningful upside push
  • An important turn window is eyed today/tomorrow
  • A move under 1.2585 will turn us negative on the euro agail

EUR/USD Strategy: Square, but like selling EUR/USD on a clear break of 1.2585.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2585

1.2700

1.2740

1.2750

*1.2835

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: Big Day For the Buck

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has fallen steadily since failing last week near the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low in the 1.251 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Gold while over 1210
  • However, a push through 1251 is required to get more excited about the metal
  • An important turn window is today
  • A close under 1210 would turn us negative on Gold

XAU/USD Strategy: Square

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1210

1224

1227

*1251

1264

Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX

Price & Time: Big Day For the Buck

The FXCM US Dollar Index (USD vs an equally weighted basket) has followed the projected path we laid out last week (see HERE) rather well with the index having come under steady pressure since Friday. Today/tomorrow will be important as our analysis of cycles and other timing methods suggests the index should now try to turn up during this period. A trendline connecting the year’s high and last week’s high around 11,025 is a key near-term pivot, but strength over the 61.8% retracement of the month-to-date range around 11,057 is really needed in our view to get more excited about a potential resumption of the broader USD uptrend. Continued weakness in the index past the first half of the trading day tomorrow or any sustained weakness under 10,919 would open the way for at least another week of decline.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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