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Price & Time: Deciphering the Short-Term USD Wiggles

Price & Time: Deciphering the Short-Term USD Wiggles

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD stalls at key downside pivot level
  • S&P 500 testing key retracement zone
  • Important 24 hours for USD

Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Deciphering the Short-Term USD Wiggles

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under steady pressure over the past few days after failing last week near the 1.2835 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher while above 1.2585
  • A move through 1.2745 is needed to re-instill any sort of upside momentume in the pair
  • A minor turn window is seen today ahead of a more important cyclical inflection point next week
  • A close under 1.2585 will turn us negative on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Square

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2585

1.2605

1.2665

1.2700

*1.2745

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Price & Time: Deciphering the Short-Term USD Wiggles

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 has moved sharply higher over the past few days after finding support at the 161.8% projection of the late September decline in the 1820 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative in the index while under 1980
  • The 2nd square root relationship of the month’s low at 1908 is an important downside pivot
  • A turn window is eyed around the 1st week of next month
  • A close over 1980 will turn us positive on the index

S&P 500 Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

*1908

1925

1939

1951

*1980

Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US DOLLAR INDEX

Price & Time: Deciphering the Short-Term USD Wiggles

There is a lot of excitement in the air at the moment that the USD is resuming its broad advance. We are sympathetic to this view as the medium and longer-term cycles look pretty clearly positive for the Greenback over the next few months. The short-term wiggles are a little different story, however, as a few of the main currency pairs suggest that we could see a few more days of dollar weakness before the advance begins in earnest. The action over the next 24 hours or so should prove key in determining whether the correction of the past few weeks has more life in it or not as USD strength past today would be an incredibly strong signal that the Buck has indeed truly started higher. A key level to watch in the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted USD basket) is 11,038. Failure to gain a foothold above this level today will warn that the correction isn’t quite finished.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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