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Price & Time: When Does the USD Trend Resume?

Price & Time: When Does the USD Trend Resume?

2014-10-21 12:05:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY rebounds off key Gann level
  • GBP/USD testing important near-term pivot
  • USD/MXN stalls at key time barrier

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: When Does the USD Trend Resume?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has rallied steadily since closing on the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high around 105.80
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower while below 107.45
  • A close under 105.90 is needed to set off a new leg lower in the pair
  • A turn window is eyed around the end of the week
  • A close back over 107.45 is needed to re-focus higher in USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 107.45.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

105.40

*105.90

106.80

107.00

*107.45

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: When Does the USD Trend Resume?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD has traded steadily higher since finding support last week near the 10th square root relationship of the year’s high near 1.5880
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while over 1.6010
  • A close over 1.6180 is needed to trigger a more serious correction in the exchange rate
  • A minor turn window is eyed today
  • A close under 1.6010 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

GBP/USD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6010

1.6085

1.6150

*1.6180

1.6225

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/MXN

Price & Time: When Does the USD Trend Resume?

Last week we witnessed a nice convergence of cyclical relationships in USD/MXN. The uptrend in the exchange rate has stalled around this time barrier, but so far downside price action has been less than impressive. A close in the next day or so under 13.5000 is really needed to confirm that some sort of high is place. On the topside, the 61.8% retracement of the 2012/2013 range near 13.5800 is critical resistance as a close over this level would invalidate the near-term negative cyclical potential. More importantly such an easy push through this “time resistance” would further validate the strength of the trend in place since June and set the stage for an important push higher in USD/MXN into December.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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