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Price & Time: To Bounce, Or Not To Bounce  - That Is The Question.

Price & Time: To Bounce, Or Not To Bounce - That Is The Question.

2014-10-16 12:05:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY test 1Q14 high
  • GBP/USD rebounds off key Gann level
  • Key couple of days for Crude coming up

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: To Bounce, Or Not To Bounce  - That Is The Question.

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY fell sharply on Wednesday to test the 1Q14 highs
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower while below 107.45
  • A close under 105.40 is needed to set off a new leg lower in the pair
  • A turn window of some importantance is eyed Friday/Monday
  • A close back over 107.45 is needed to re-focus higher in USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 107.45.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

104.75

*105.40

105.65

106.75

*107.45

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: To Bounce, Or Not To Bounce  - That Is The Question.

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD recorded a new low for the year yesterday before finding support near the 10th Gann square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.5880
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while below 1.6070
  • A close under 1.5880 is needed to confirm a downside resumption
  • A minor turn window is eyed early next week
  • A close over 1.5880 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

GBP/USD Strategy: Like selling on strength while below 1.6070.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5820

*1.5880

1.5980

*1.6070

1.6180

Focus Chart of the Day: CRUDE

Price & Time: To Bounce, Or Not To Bounce  - That Is The Question.

WD Gann wrote about the 90-day trend cycle in a couple of his books. He noted that in commodity markets in particular there is a propensity for a reversal after an instrument has traded steadily lower for 90 days. Technical analysts have since dubbed this the “Gann Death Cycle”. We bring this up now because one of the more important charts out there at the moment is Crude and it is in the 89th day of its decline from the year’s high recorded in mid-June. If an oversold bounce is going to materialize to clear out some of the recent extremes in positioning and sentiment then we would expect it to occur sometime over the next couple of trading days. This roughly coincides with some nice timing in the equity markets at the end of the week as well. The 78.40-77.50 area is the next important zone of support if the 80 bucks a barrel psychological level gives way. Traction over 82.50 is needed to confirm that some sort of reversal is underway.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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