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Price & Time: What is Gold Really Telling Us?

Price & Time: What is Gold Really Telling Us?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • GOLD rally so far unimpressive
  • AUD/USD consolidates above 1Q low
  • EUR/USD consolidation continues

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: What is Gold Really Telling Us?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has traded in a sideways to higher range since finding support near 1.2500 at the start of the month
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the euro while over 1.2605
  • The 61.8% retracement of the 2012/2014 advance (polarity) at 1.2785 needs to be overcome to set off a more important correcttive move higher
  • Early next week is the next minor turn window in the rate
  • A close under 1.2605 would warn the downtrend has resumed ahead of schedule

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding small long positions while above 1.2605.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2605

1.2645

1.2645

1.2700

*1.2785

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Price & Time: What is Gold Really Telling Us?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD is in consolidation mode near the 1H14 lows
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .8840
  • A close under .8660 is needed to set off a downside extension
  • A minor turn window is eyed early next week
  • A close over .8660 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

AUD/USD Strategy: Like selling on strength while below .8840.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*.8660

.8710

.8720

.8760

*.8840

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

Price & Time: What is Gold Really Telling Us?

Gold has managed to rally over the past couple of weeks, but the advance remains unimpressive especially given what has happened to global equities during the same period. If you talk to most they will say the metal should be benefit anytime there is turmoil in the risk markets, but history shows this isn’t really the case as Gold is often times caught between being viewed as a commodity and a currency/store of value. Clearly at the moment its commodity properties are weighing on it and keeping it from fully benefitting from the recent bout of risk aversion. For this regime to change it will probably require a much more serious decline in stocks. I remember vividly in 2008 having the same discussions with people as Crude and Gold were falling in tandem and the metal’s safe haven merits were then too being called into question. Then around October things changed and Gold began to rally while crude continued sharply lower. The regime had changed and Gold was once again a safe haven. It is important to note that the SPX is onlyaround 150 points off its all-time high. That was almost a day’s range on some days during that dark period in 2008/2009. My point being this is not a real serious “risk off” phase - at least yet. When things get truly dicey I have little doubt Gold will let us know.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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