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Price & Time: A "Healthy" Decline in USD/JPY?

Price & Time: A "Healthy" Decline in USD/JPY?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY corrects on well below average volume
  • GBP/USD fall to new lows for the year
  • EUR/USD testing channel support

Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has traded in a sideways to higher range since finding support near 1.2500 at the start of the month
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the euro while over 1.2605
  • The 61.8% retracement of the 2012/2014 advance (polarity) at 1.2785 needs to be overcome to set off a more important corrective move higher
  • A very minor turn window is eyed today
  • A close under 1.2605 would warn the downtrend has resumed ahead of schedule

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding small long positions while above 1.2605.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2605

1.2645

1.2655

1.2700

*1.2785

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD has come under renewed pressure on Tuesday to trade at a new low for the year
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while below 1.6225
  • The next downside attraction of note is eyed around 1.5885
  • A minor turn window is seen tomorrow
  • A close over 1.6225 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

GBP/USD Strategy: Square

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.5885

1.5920

1.5945

1.6090

*1.6225

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

USD/JPY is now over three big figures off its recent high. Is this move just a correction or the start of something bigger on the downside? We are leaning towards the former given volume has all but evaporated over the past few days as the exchange rate has made its way lower. This is in sharp contrast to September when volume levels were well above average as spot moved higher. Such action is fairly textbook behavior of a correction within an uptrend. Of course this doesn’t mean that the exchange rate can’t continue to sell off on weak volume, but so far things look pretty “healthy”. Cyclical analysis suggests the rate should remain heavy for another few days or so, but barring a dramatic increase in volume or a break of key support near 105.40 we see little reason to doubt that the broader trend will soon resume.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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