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Price & Time: USD/JPY Change in Behaviour

Price & Time: USD/JPY Change in Behaviour

2014-10-07 12:05:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Correction or reversal in EUR/USD?
  • GBP/USD rebounds after critical technical break
  • USD/JPY showing signs of fatigue

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Change in Behaviour

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to its lowest level in over two years last week before rebounding aggressively yesterday from just above 1.2500
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower while below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.2725
  • Interim support is eyed at 1.2500, but the next key downside attraction looks to be the 78.6% retracement of the 2012/2014 range near 1.2455
  • A turn window of some importantance is eyed later this week
  • A close over 1.2725 would turn us positive on the euro

USD/JPY Strategy: Like holding reduced long short positions while below 1.2725

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.2455

1.2500

1.2600

1.2675

*1.2725

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Change in Behaviour

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD fell to its lowest level since November of last year late last week
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in cable while below 1.6205
  • A close back under 1.6000 is needed to signal a resumption of the decline
  • A minor turn window is eyed later this week
  • A close over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.6205 would turn us positive on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced short position while below 1.6205.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5880

*1.6000

1.6055

1.6085

*1.6205

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: USD/JPY Change in Behaviour

USD/JPY bounced smartly off the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high near 108.00 last week. The 2nd square root relationship is critical in the way we look at things as corrections tend to get sloppy and much more complex below this level. While USD/JPY remains above 108.00 we have to favor the upside, but the rate’s failure to push to new highs following the recovery off 108.00 is more than a little concerning as the psychology is now in place for some kind of top. A close over 109.75 or a push through 110.10 is needed to alleviate our concerns while a break under 108.00 would turn us overtly negative on the pair.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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