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Price & Time: NZD/JPY Bear Pattern Hangs in the Balance

Price & Time: NZD/JPY Bear Pattern Hangs in the Balance

2014-10-02 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY turns at key Fib extension
  • S&P 500 nears key pivot
  • NZD/JPY trades back to neckline of multi-month H&S pattern

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: NZD/JPY Bear Pattern Hangs in the Balance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded at its highest level since 2008 yesterday before running into resistance near the 200% extension of the 1Q14 range in the 110.10 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while over 108.00
  • A close over 110.10 is needed to signal a resumption of the broader trend
  • A turn window of some importantance is eyed later next week
  • A close over 1.0800 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like holding reduced long positions while above 108.00

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*108.00

108.25

108.60

108.90

*110.10

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Price & Time: NZD/JPY Bear Pattern Hangs in the Balance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 has come under fairly steady pressure since peaking around a key Gann turn window late last month in the 2020 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while over the 2nd square root relationship of the all-time high at 1932
  • A move back through 1977 is needed to re-instill upside momentum in the index
  • A minor turn window is eyed early next week
  • A close under 1232 will turn us negative on the index

S&P 500 Strategy: Square

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

*1932

1940

1947

1957

*1977

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/JPY

Price & Time: NZD/JPY Bear Pattern Hangs in the Balance

NZD/JPY broke under the neckline of a multi-month head & shoulders pattern (closing basis) late last week. The acceleration lower following this break has since stalled near the 61.8% retracement of the year’s range in the 84.65 area. The reaction over the next few sessions at 86.20 should prove important. If the cross is just backfilling before heading lower we would not expect it to make too much headway above this level. A close under 84.65 is needed to signal a resumption of the technical pattern breakdown.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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