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Price & Time: The AUD/USD Cold Shoulder

Price & Time: The AUD/USD Cold Shoulder

2014-09-11 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD consolidates above key Gann level
  • AUD/USD holds important technical level
  • GBP/USD nearing important upside pivot

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: The AUD/USD Cold Shoulder

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD is in consolidation mode above the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 low near 1.2860
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the rate while below 1.3010
  • A close under 1.2860 is needed to kick off a new leg lower
  • An important turn window is eyed later in the month
  • A close below over 1.3010 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced short positions while below 1.3010.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.2815

*1.2960

1.2915

1.2970

*1.3010

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: The AUD/USD Cold Shoulder

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD touched its lowest level in almost ten months earlier this week before reversing sharply from just above a key Gann/Fibonacci confluence zone near 1.6000
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.6305
  • Weakness under 1.6140 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the rate
  • A cycle turn window is eyed later next week
  • A move over 1.6305 would turn us positive on the Pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced short positions while below 1.6305.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6140

1.6180

1.6245

1.6275

*1.6305

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

Price & Time: The AUD/USD Cold Shoulder

There was some interesting action in AUD/USD overnight as the exchange rate ignored a seemingly very positive employment report. The initial reaction to the news saw the rate rally to re-test the neckline of the multi-month head & shoulders pattern (.9220) that had been triggered earlier in the week. The pair could not make any headway over that level, however, further confirming the validity of the negative pattern. The rate has come under steady pressure since then falling by about a big figure at the time of writing. A key downside pivot going forward looks to be the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near .9120 as a close below this level should set off a deeper decline into next week. The latter part of next week looks quite important from a cyclical perspective as key relationship with the 2011 high should influence the rate around this time. New lows into this period will have me looking for a reversal, but with sentiment far from extended in the Aussie I will need to see some pretty clear positive price action before looking to fade this burgeoning downtrend. Key downside attractions and potential reaction areas after .9120 look to be .9060/75 and .8965/75.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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