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Price & Time: USD/JPY Where To Next?

Price & Time: USD/JPY Where To Next?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD rebounds from key Gann level
  • SPX testing near-term downside pivot
  • USD/JPY monthly close over 105.30 will be key

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY Where To Next?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD touched its lowest level in over a year yesterday before rebounding off the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 low near 1.2860
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the rate while below 1.3010
  • A close under 1.2860 is needed to kick off a new leg lower
  • An important turn window is eyed later in the month
  • A close below over 1.3010 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced short positions while below 1.3010.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.2815

*1.2960

1.2930

1.2970

*1.3010

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Price & Time: USD/JPY Where To Next?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 failed last week near a key Gann level related to the 2009 low
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower while below 2012
  • A close below 1990 is needed confirm that some sort of top is in place
  • A cycle turn window is eyed later this month
  • A move over 2012 will turn us positive on the market again

S&P 500 Strategy: Like being short against 2012.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

1970

*1990

1990

1996

*2012

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: USD/JPY Where To Next?

With USD/JPY breaking out to new 6-year highs over the past couple of days I thought it would be useful to revisit the monthly chart as it has been a good big picture guide. At the start of the year USD/JPY failed right around 105.30 which was the convergence of the 61.8% retracement of the 2002-2011 decline and the 50% retracement of the 2002-2011 decline. The recent break above this long-term resistance zone is obviously potentially very bullish - especially if the exchange rate can hold above 105.30 into the end of the month as this would favor a move towards the next long-term Fibonacci resistance cluster around 112.30/113.35. A convergence of the trendline connecting the 2002 & 2007 peaks and the 1.618% extension of the 1Q14 range around 1.0800/30 could prove sticky in the near-term, but the real zone of attraction in the way I look at things appears to be closer to 112.00. Failure to achieve a monthly close over 105.30 would make me doubt the validity of the break out, but weakness under the trendline connecting the 1998 & 2007 highs near 104.00 is needed to turn the picture more overtly negative.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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