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Price & Time: In Search of A Low in the Euro Next Week

Price & Time: In Search of A Low in the Euro Next Week

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Next week very important for the euro
  • USD/CAD nearing key downside pivot
  • USD/JPY advance begins to stall

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: In Search of A Low in the Euro Next Week

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY touched its highest level since late January earlier this week before stalling
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in USD/JPY while above 102.75
  • The 1st square root relationship of the year’s high at 104.40 is the next near-term upside pivot
  • A turn window is eyed next week
  • A close under 102.75 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 102.75.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*102.75

103.75

103.85

104.10

*104.40

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Price & Time: In Search of A Low in the Euro Next Week

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD traded at its highest level since early May on Tuesday before encountering resistance at the 2x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high near 1.1000
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 1.0855
  • A close over 1.1000 is needed to re-instill positive momentum and signal a new leg higher is underway
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A move under 1.0855 will turn us negative on Funds

USD/CAD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0855

1.0880

1.0905

1.0950

*1.1000

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: In Search of A Low in the Euro Next Week

EUR/USD fell to its lowest level in almost a year on Wednesday before finding support near the 38% retracement (polarity) of the 2011 to 2012 decline in the 1.3150 area. My cycle work suggests that next week should prove important for the exchange rate from a timing perspective. Originally I had anticipated that this key period around the start of September would end up being some sort of secondary high in the single currency, but the August correction never materialized. With sentiment now at dangerous extremes (EUR DSI at just 6% bulls) and seasonal analysis showing that September is one of the stronger periods of the year for the euro, factors seem to be aligning for some sort of decent low next week. With the highly anticipated ECB meeting coming right around the idealized turn date I am expecting that the actions taken by Draghi & Co. will probably be interpreted as a disappointment by the market as a whole. Key reaction levels over the next few days are seen at 1.3125, 1.3085 and 1.3055.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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