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Price & Time: Opportunities in the Cross Rates

Price & Time: Opportunities in the Cross Rates

2014-08-14 12:20:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Euro struggling to hold above key Fib extension
  • AUD/USD reverses from key Gann pivot
  • AUD/NZD nearing a top?

Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Opportunities in the Cross Rates

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD is in consolidation mode above the 200% extension of the June/July advance
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while under 1.3430
  • A close below 1.3300 is needed to kick off a more serious decline
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A close over 1.3430 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like only reduced short positions while under 1.3430.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3300

1.3355

1.3375

1.3405

*1.3430

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Price & Time: Opportunities in the Cross Rates

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has moved higher over the past few days following a reversal off the 5th square root relationship of the October 2013 high
  • Our near-term trend bias is still lower in the exchange rate while below .9360
  • A move under .9260 is needed to set off a new leg lower
  • A cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A move over .9360 would shift our near-term trend bias higher

AUD/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced short positions while below .9360.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*.9260

.9285

1308

.9335

*.9360

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/NZD

Price & Time: Opportunities in the Cross Rates

AUD/NZD has been one of our favorite cross rates of late. The low in mid-July came almost exactly 8.6 years from the major low in 2005 which raises the possibility that the exchange rate is in the midst of a much more important move higher. However, we see some cyclical headwinds over the next few weeks which should see the cross enter into a corrective phase. A move under 1.0920 over the next few days will confirm that a top of some sort is in place and set up a decline towards the key support zone near 1.0840. Any strength over 1.1050 would undermine the near-term topping potential.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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