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Price & Time: Today's Close in the Euro Should Prove Important

Price & Time: Today's Close in the Euro Should Prove Important

2014-08-12 12:20:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Important next few hours for the euro
  • USD/CAD in consolidation move below key Fib level
  • USD/JPY lacks momentum, but for how long?

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Today's Close in the Euro Should Prove Important

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has come under pressure after failing near the 50% retracement of the year’s range
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 101.50
  • The 102.35 area is an important near-term pivot with strength above this level needed to re-instill upside mometum
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen later this week
  • A close under 101.50 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 101.50.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*1.3300

1.3330

1.3380

1.3400

*1.3450

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Price & Time: Today's Close in the Euro Should Prove Important

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD traded at its highs level in over three months last week before encountering resistance near the 161.8% projection of the early July advance in the 1.0990 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while over 1.0875
  • A move through 1.0990 is needed to confirm the start of a new leg higher
  • A cycle turn window is eyed this week
  • A move under 1.0875 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.0875.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

1.0845

*1.0875

1.0945

1.0950

*1.0990

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Today's Close in the Euro Should Prove Important

The New York close in EUR/USD should prove important. The reversal last week came at the right time from a cyclical perspective which has had us looking for an August correction in the euro. The rally on Friday back over 1.3400 looked like a promising start, but the aggressive weakness this morning is putting this positive immediate positive view in serious jeopardy. There is still some chance that this move lower is just a re-test of last week’s low, but for this to be the case we will need to see 1.3330 hold on a closing basis (and ideally 1.3360) followed by a steady move higher over the next couple of days. A daily close below 1.3330 would favor more weakness into the next cyclical turn window seen around the first part of next week.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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