We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #CrudeOil price action could consolidate into a broad trading range following a historic Q2 as barriers of technical confluence stand to contain the commodity’s direction. Download our oil #trading guide for the full report: https://t.co/DcjPcVpX5x https://t.co/EJlDquZ9WR
  • It’s unlikely that the #ECB on its own will continue to be able to prevent the Euro from weakening if EU governments continue to argue about policy. Download our #EUR trading guide to find out more: https://t.co/Kjp34DoEzE https://t.co/gtKQa9zXX5
  • The #USD spent the bulk of Q2 in a range after a climactic Q1; and with a series of risk themes continuing to push, combined with an election in November, the door appears open for more vol in USD. Download our USD trading guide here: https://t.co/2Wo7EcwAht https://t.co/BA5dWk4wTt
  • $USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/OTTEmg76W8
  • The immediate focus is on a break of this multi-week consolidation formation in the Australian Dollar with the broader rally vulnerable while below 7042. Get your AUD technical analysis here: https://t.co/iEYos1ioBc https://t.co/kuzB3Eqps0
  • #Gold prices have rallied to nine-year highs with the breakout testing multi-year uptrend resistance into the open of Q3. Can the rally be sustained? Download our latest Gold trading guide!: https://t.co/3KO2QWOnOt https://t.co/YIIGZdeIAJ
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/zerRXZC1Tq
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkd4B0k https://t.co/uj93z2SHpH
  • The Australian Dollar’s surge from the March lows may be coming to an end as bearish patterns begin to line up on multiple time-frames. Check out our #AUD trading guide to learn more here: https://t.co/pjfm07tqFd https://t.co/VypHLra1ER
  • The Evening Star candlestick is a three-candle pattern that signals a reversal in the market and is commonly used to trade forex. Learn more about the evening star candlestick pattern here: https://t.co/8OTE7m01IG https://t.co/Vumcng7UB3
Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

2014-07-31 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY attempting to breakout
  • S&P 500 nearing important downside pivot
  • Important developments on the monthly FXCM Dollar Index chart

Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level yesterday since the start of April
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 101.05
  • The 61.8% retracement of the April/May decline at 102.85 needs to be overcome to ease doubts of a false of break
  • A very minor cycle turn window is eyed early next week
  • Interim support is seen around 101.75, but only aggressive weakness under 101.05 would turn us negative on the exchange rate.

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 101.05.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.75

102.35

102.80

*102.85

103.35

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 has chopped around since the important cycle turn window around the middle of the month (notably the Dow peaked during this window and the divergence has yet to be resolved)
  • However, our near-term trend bias is higher in index while above 1947
  • A close over 1989 is needed to confirm a resumption of the broader trend
  • A minor cycle turn window is eyed later next week
  • A daily close under 1947 will turn us negative on the S&P 500

S&P 500 Strategy: Like holding only small long positions here. Will look to trade from the short side if 1947 gives way on a closing basis.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

1937

*1947

1959

1970

*1989

Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US Dollar Index

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

It is the last trading day of the month and several markets we track are on the cusp of putting in some important patterns on the monthly. Perhaps the most interesting is the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD against EUR, JPY, GBP & AUD) which if things stay as they are for a few more hours will complete a key reversal/outside month. This is a pretty bullish medium/long-term omen, but even more so when you take into account that the reversal at the beginning of the month came right off the 50% retracement of the 2012/2013 advance. It is also worth noting that a close around current levels could also be interpreted as a breakout from a year-long continuation pattern as the index will have overcome the trendline connecting the July 2013 & January 2014 highs. All things considered, the USD clearly looks to be gearing up for a strong second half of the year. Something the longer-term cyclical picture seems to support. In my experience, however, such widely patterns don’t usually work right away as there is often a pullback period after technicians like myself hype the monthly patterns. Such an occurrence looks possible this time as a short period of weakness is favored after the cycle turn window next week.

To receive Kristian’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.