We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What is your #tradingstyle? Take the quiz and let us know: https://t.co/LPBOcS0Vtd https://t.co/l6FvtcADEH
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/dnrAMFK4U2
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/RMk5Eb5fLU
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
  • The Australian Dollar was focused on its home country in the past week, but that is likely to change sharply in the days ahead with major global risk events coming up. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/yZz3hCyVMx https://t.co/1xw1JHwd7l
  • The #Euro broke chart resistance, threatening to challenge the bounds of its longer -term downtrend against the $USD. Bulls may find it premature to celebrate however. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/VfR13llYbW https://t.co/LiWTvIygxc
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/jgZMUFVGJB
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

2014-07-31 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY attempting to breakout
  • S&P 500 nearing important downside pivot
  • Important developments on the monthly FXCM Dollar Index chart

Get real time volume on your charts for free. Click HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level yesterday since the start of April
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 101.05
  • The 61.8% retracement of the April/May decline at 102.85 needs to be overcome to ease doubts of a false of break
  • A very minor cycle turn window is eyed early next week
  • Interim support is seen around 101.75, but only aggressive weakness under 101.05 would turn us negative on the exchange rate.

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 101.05.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.75

102.35

102.80

*102.85

103.35

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 has chopped around since the important cycle turn window around the middle of the month (notably the Dow peaked during this window and the divergence has yet to be resolved)
  • However, our near-term trend bias is higher in index while above 1947
  • A close over 1989 is needed to confirm a resumption of the broader trend
  • A minor cycle turn window is eyed later next week
  • A daily close under 1947 will turn us negative on the S&P 500

S&P 500 Strategy: Like holding only small long positions here. Will look to trade from the short side if 1947 gives way on a closing basis.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

1937

*1947

1959

1970

*1989

Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US Dollar Index

Price & Time: The Longer-Term Implications of Recent USD Strength

It is the last trading day of the month and several markets we track are on the cusp of putting in some important patterns on the monthly. Perhaps the most interesting is the FXCM US Dollar Index (equally weighted basket of USD against EUR, JPY, GBP & AUD) which if things stay as they are for a few more hours will complete a key reversal/outside month. This is a pretty bullish medium/long-term omen, but even more so when you take into account that the reversal at the beginning of the month came right off the 50% retracement of the 2012/2013 advance. It is also worth noting that a close around current levels could also be interpreted as a breakout from a year-long continuation pattern as the index will have overcome the trendline connecting the July 2013 & January 2014 highs. All things considered, the USD clearly looks to be gearing up for a strong second half of the year. Something the longer-term cyclical picture seems to support. In my experience, however, such widely patterns don’t usually work right away as there is often a pullback period after technicians like myself hype the monthly patterns. Such an occurrence looks possible this time as a short period of weakness is favored after the cycle turn window next week.

To receive Kristian’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.