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Price & Time: What Is Going On With Gold?

Price & Time: What Is Going On With Gold?

2014-07-29 12:20:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD closes at lowest level in seven months
  • NZD/USD at multi-week low
  • Turn window in Gold next week

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: What Is Going On With Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD closed at its lowest level in seven months on Friday before recovering modestly off the 6th square root relationship of the 2013 low near 1.3430
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while below 1.3545
  • A daily close below a key Fibonacci confluence in the 1.3395 area is needed to set off a more material move lower
  • A very minor cycle turn window is tomorrow ahead of a more important one around the middle of next week
  • A move over 1.3545 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: A low next week would not surprise. We like holding only a reduced short position while under 1.3545.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3395

1.3430

1.3430

*1.3545

1.3590

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: What Is Going On With Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD has come under fairly aggressive pressure over the past few weeks
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Bird while under .8650
  • The 78.6% retracement of the June /July advance at .8495 is an important near-term pivot with weakness below needed to set up a test of a major Gann attraction near .8460
  • The next important cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A move over .8650 would turn us positive on the Kiwi

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .8650.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

*.8460

.8495

.8515

.8590

*.8650

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

Price & Time: What Is Going On With Gold?

The beginning of summer was important for Gold from a cyclical perspective as several key long-term relationships converged around that time. For this reason we believe the low at the start of June was significant and should lead to an important trend move higher during the second half of the year. However, over the past couple of weeks the metal has come under fairly steady pressure. The next important turn window is eyed around the middle of next week and the metal needs to turn back up around this time to confirm that our broader positive view is indeed correct. Key support over the next week looks to be between 1280 and 1270 and this area needs to hold.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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