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Price & Time: EUR/USD Bounce?

Price & Time: EUR/USD Bounce?

2014-07-24 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: EUR/USD Bounce?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has moved steadily higher over the past few days
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while over 101.05
  • A daily close over 102.25 is needed to confirm the start of a more serious advance
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen today
  • Weakness below 101.05 would re-focus lower

USD/JPY Strategy: Like buying USD/JPY on a move through 102.25.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.05

101.35

101.60

101.75

*102.25

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: EUR/USD Bounce?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD dropped to its lowest level in over a month before rebounding off the 61.8% retracement of the June/July advance
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Bird while below .8645
  • A close under .8555 is needed to set up the next leg lower
  • A minor cycle turn window is eyed tomorrow
  • Strength back through .8645 would turn us positive on the Kiwi

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while under .8645

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

.8525

*.8555

.8590

.8615

*.8645

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: EUR/USD Bounce?

EUR/USD is at a near-term crossroads with respect to timing. A convergence of cyclical relationships this week suggests the exchange rate is susceptible to a counter-trend move in the sessions ahead. Perhaps the most interesting relationship here that could influence is the 261.8% time extension of the 2011/2012 range (shown above). From a price perspective the rate has been so far been unable to gain much traction below 1.3460 and until we see a close below this level we are open to at least the possibility of a fairly aggressive recovery – especially with month-end on the horizon. Strength back through 1.3520 would signal at least an intermediate-term low is probably in place.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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