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Price & Time: Unbreakable

Price & Time: Unbreakable

2014-07-23 12:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD records new low for the year
  • AUD/NZD continues higher from key cycle turn window
  • S&P 500 unbreakable?

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Unbreakable

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD touched its lowest level of the year on Wednesday before rebounding off the 127% extension of the June/July advance near 1.3455
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the rate while below 1.3550
  • A daily close under 1.3455 is needed to confirm a broader move lower
  • A cycle turn window is eyed later this week
  • A move back over 1.3550 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding only reduced short positions into this turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3405

*1.3455

1.3470

*1.3550

1.3590

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/NZD

Price & Time: Unbreakable

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/NZD has moved sharply higher from the cycle turn window we highlighted early last week
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the cross while over 1.0765
  • The next major resistance zone is seen around 1.0925
  • Very minor cycle turn windows are eyed on Thursday and Tuesday
  • A move under 1.0765 would shift our near-term trend bias to negative

AUD/NZD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.0765.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/NZD

*1.0765

1.0825

1.0875

1.0900

*1.0925

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

Price & Time: Unbreakable

US equity markets underwent a hiccup last week (if you can even call it that) around the mid-month cyclical turn window we highlighted. Since then the S&P 500 has managed to punch through to a new all-time high while the Dow is dangerously close. All we can say is the resilience of the indices is quite remarkable - especially when taking into account some of the extremes in sentiment we have witnessed recently. The action of the past few days obviously puts our favored scenario of a multi-week/month correction into serious doubt, but we would like to give it just a little more time as a loose interpretation of the cycles has the window for a turn extending as far as the second half of this week. In the S&P 500 key resistance remains between 1989 and 2006 and the top end of this zone really needs to be overcome to signal that the trend is resuming in earnest. The action last week off 1948 confirms it as a meaningful pivot and weakness under this level is needed to confirm the start of any sort of meaningful corrective phase. Early September looks to be the next turn window of any potential significance.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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