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Price & Time: EUR/USD "Flips the Script"

Price & Time: EUR/USD "Flips the Script"

2014-07-01 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY low?
  • NZD/USD stalls near ley Gann resistance
  • Looking to fade the euro later this week

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: EUR/USD "Flips the Script"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY closed at it lowest level in over a month on Monday
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in USD/JPY while below 102.00
  • The 78.6% retracement of the May/June range at 101.25 is a key pivot with weakness below this level a lynchpin to a deeper decline
  • A cycle turn window was seen yesterday
  • A move over 102.00 will turn us positive on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while under 102.00, but rate is at a critical juncture. Open to possibility that yesterday was a cycle low.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*100.75

*101.25

101.50

*102.00

102.80

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: EUR/USD "Flips the Script"

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD advance has stalled near the 8th square root relationship of the year’s high in the .8780 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is still higher in the Bird while above .8650
  • A close over .8810 is needed to set up a new leg higher in the rate
  • The end of a broad cyclical turn window is today
  • A daily close .8650 will turn us negative

NZD/USD Strategy: Cyclical analysis suggest the Kiwi is vulnerable to a correction. Like being square or holding only minimal longs for a few days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

*.8650

.8725

.8755

*.8810

.8840

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: EUR/USD "Flips the Script"

The low we were looking for in EUR/USD into month-end failed to materialize as the exchange rate busted through the 61.8% retracement of the year-to-date range to trade at its highest level in almost a month a half yesterday. This action may seem bullish (and probably is for a few more days), but from a cyclical perspective this actually ‘flips the script’ a bit and sets the rate up for a high and a potentially important one later in the week (perhaps as late as early next week with the US holiday). We can only assume the “reason” will be the ECB meeting or US employment figures or some combination, but we will let the more fundamentally inclined out there figure it out and tell us why. Key resistance heading into this period looks to be the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the May/June range around 1.3750/1.3800. Any failure around this zone later this week should set up an important move lower in the euro for most of July. New highs for the current uptrend past Monday of next week would invalidate this view.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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