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Price & Time: Watching the Greenback Closely

Price & Time: Watching the Greenback Closely

2014-06-30 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD inches higher
  • GOLD stalls at key resistance
  • USD/CAD nearing major confluence zone

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Watching the Greenback Closely

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD contines to extend its recovery off the 4th square root relationship of the year’s higher at 1.3520
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the euro while under 1.3675
  • A daily close below 1.3520 is needed to signal that the decline in the exchange rate is resuming
  • A cycle turn window is eyed around the end of the week
  • A close over 1.3675 will focus higher

EUR/USD Strategy: Square while awaiting a break of the ‘ECB range’.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3520

1.3590

1.3650

*1.3675

1.3710

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: Watching the Greenback Closely

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD advance has stalled below a key Gann confluence zone in the 1320 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is still higher in the metal while over 1286
  • A close over 1321 is needed to signal that a new leg higher is underway
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen around the middle of the week
  • A daily close below 1286 will turn us negative

XAU/USD Strategy: Looking to buy on weakness against 1286.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1286

1305

1312

*1321

1335

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

Price & Time: Watching the Greenback Closely

We are constantly looking for a convergence of various important levels (confluence) on our charts. One of these confluence zones that particularly stands out at the moment is in USD/CAD. Between 1.0650 and 1.0600 on the daily chart there is the 6th square root relationship of the year’s high, the 38% retracement of the 2012/2014 advance, the measured move of the March/April decline, the 61.8% retracement of the September/March move higher and a trendline connecting several key lows since 2012. Each one of these levels in its own right is probably important enough prompt a reversal, but together the odds go up. The trend since March has been powerful, but cyclical analysis suggests it is getting long in the tooth and prone to a turn around the start of the month. Further supporting this view is the seasonal picture which shows July is historically the worst month of the year for the Canadian dollar. All of these factors seem favor a counter-trend move or at least an attempt at one in the sessions ahead. A daily settlement under 1.0600 would invalidate this positive view.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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