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Price & Time: End of Month Turns Eyed in Several Key Markets

Price & Time: End of Month Turns Eyed in Several Key Markets

2014-06-26 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY probes neckline of H&S pattern
  • USD/CHF is setting up for trend move
  • Silver reversal underway?

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: End of Month Turns Eyed in Several Key Markets

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY is in consolidation mode above the 101.55 61.8% retracement of the May/June advance
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while under 102.80
  • A daily close below 101.55 is needed to force a more important decline
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the end of the month
  • A close back over 102.80 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.80.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.35

*101.55

101.75

102.35

*102.80

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

Price & Time: End of Month Turns Eyed in Several Key Markets

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF touched its lowest level in several weeks yesterday before finding support at the 38% retracement of the March/June advance near .8910
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below .8995
  • A close under .8910 is needed to set up a more important decline
  • A cycle turn window is seen around month-end
  • A daily close over .8995 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like selling on strength over the next few days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

.8885

*.8910

.8945

.8945

*.8995

Focus Chart of the Day: SILVER

Price & Time: End of Month Turns Eyed in Several Key Markets

Silver has rallied sharply from the long-term cycle turn window we identified around the middle of the month. On Wednesday the metal briefly tested the 38% retracement of the August to December decline around 21.00. With several short-term cycles converging over the next day or so the metal looks does look vulnerable to at least a minor correction in the week ahead before resuming the advance. The week-to-date low near 20.75 is an important near-term trading pivot with a move below this level needed to confirm that a reversal of some kind is in fact underway. A close over yesterday’s 21.15 intraday high would invalidate the immediate negative cyclical picture and suggest the metal is resuming its advance well ahead of schedule.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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