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Price & Time: Quarter-End A Catalyst For Volatility?

Price & Time: Quarter-End A Catalyst For Volatility?

2014-06-24 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY flirting with H&S neckline
  • USD/CAD touches lowest level in 5-months
  • End of month should prove important for EUR/USD

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Quarter-End A Catalyst For Volatility?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode above the 61.8% retracement of the May/June range at 101.55
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while 102.80
  • A daily close under 101.55 is needed to confirm the start of a more meaningful decline in the rate
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the end of the month
  • A close over 102.80 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while resistance at 102.80 remains intact.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.35

*101.55

101.90

102.35

*102.80

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Price & Time: Quarter-End A Catalyst For Volatility?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD fell to its lowest level since early January this morning
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Funds while below 1.0855
  • The 1.0725 level is a key near-term pivot with a daily close below this level needed to trigger the next leg lower towards key attractions at 1.0685 and 1.0645.
  • A cycle turn window of some importance is seen over the next few days
  • A daily close over 1.0855 would turn us positive on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: Square.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0685

*1.0725

1.0730

1.0800

*1.0855

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Quarter-End A Catalyst For Volatility?

The near-term cyclical outlook for EUR/USD has gotten a bit murky over the past week with the somewhat unexpected persistent grind higher in the exchange rate back through 1.3600. However, with month-end, quarter-end & first half year-end approaching we know things can change fairly quickly over the next few days as institutional managers begin to rebalance their holdings. The end of the month looks quite important from a timing perspective and the scenario that best fits our cyclical model would be some sort of re-test of 1.3520 later this week as a low around this time would set up a more important move higher in July (which is one of the strongest months for the exchange rate on a seasonal basis). A move through the month-to-date high at 1.3675 would undermine this scenario and point to further strength into at least the second week of July.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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