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Price & Time: Euro Still A Sell On Rallies?

Price & Time: Euro Still A Sell On Rallies?

2014-06-16 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY nearing key downside pivot
  • Key cyclical turn window coming up in Gold
  • EUR/USD probes key support zone

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Euro Still A Sell On Rallies?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has been under steady pressure since failing at the start of the month near key Gann resistance in the 102.75 area
  • While below this level our near-term trend bias is lower
  • The 101.35 remains a key downside pivot with a daily close below needed to set off a more meanginful decline
  • Minor turn windows are seen Tuesday and Friday
  • A move over 102.75 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.75.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

101.60

101.85

102.35

*102.75

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: Euro Still A Sell On Rallies?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GOLD has moved steadily higher since finding support near the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 1244 at the beginning of the month
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative in the metal while below 1286
  • The 1244 level remains a key downside pivot with weakness below this level needed to set up another move lower in the metal
  • An important cycle turn window is seen this week
  • A daily close over 1286 would turn us positive on the metal

GOLD Strategy: Like the short side here against a daily close over 1286.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GOLD

*1244

1275

1281

*1286

1300

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Euro Still A Sell On Rallies?

Square root relationships from important highs & lows are one of our preferred ways to identify potential inflection points in the currency market. For one reason or another 4th square relationships have a tendency to be especially important. Over the past week or so EUR/USD has found support right around the 4th square root relationship of the year-to-date high near 1.3520. Normally we would be looking for some kind of strong counter-trend move to develop off this level, but the cyclical outlook looks pretty clearly negative for another couple of weeks which should work against any material euro strength developing just yet. A daily close under 1.3520 later this week would confirm our negative cyclical bent and open the way for another leg lower in the exchange rate. A move over 1.3595 would make us doubt this negative cyclical view, but strength above 1.3675 is really needed to confirm a meaningful bottom in the euro.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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