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Price & Time: Keep A Close Eye on Gold

Price & Time: Keep A Close Eye on Gold

2014-06-13 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD probing key support zone
  • DJ FXCM DOLLAR Index rebounds from Gann support
  • Cycles suggest important turn is coming up in Gold

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Keep A Close Eye on Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD closed at its lowest level in four months earlier this week before finding support near the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 1.3520
  • While below 1.3675 our near-term trend bias will remain lower in the metal
  • The 1.3520 level is an important pivot with a daily close below needed to trigger a more important push lower
  • The next turn window of significance looks to be around the end of the month
  • A move through 1.3675 would shift our near-term trend bias to positive

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3675.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3485

*1.3520

1.3530

1.3590

*1.3675

Price & Time Analysis: DJ FXCM DOLLAR INDEX

Price & Time: Keep A Close Eye on Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • DJ FXCM Dollar Index has come under steady pressure since peaking during last week’s turn window near 10,540
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative in the index while below 10,512
  • The 1st square root relationship of the recent high at 10,440 is a key downside pivot with weakness below needed to confirm a new leg lower in the dollar
  • The start and middle of next week are minor turn windows in the index
  • A daily close over 10,512 would turn us positive on the dollar

USDOLLAR Strategy: Like the short side while below 10,512

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USDOLLAR

10,418

*10,540

10,467

10,470

*10,512

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

Price & Time: Keep A Close Eye on Gold

Earlier this week we made a contrarian case for Silver (Read it HERE). One of the main reasons we are looking for some kind decent reversal in the metal over the next few weeks is a 34.4 year cyclical interval with the 1980 inflation adjusted all-time high that could influence around this time. Given Gold peaked in 1980 just a few days later this long-term cyclical relationship could have an influence on the yellow metal as well. Ideally we would like to see XAU/USD record a new low under 1240 sometime in the next week or two at the latest to set up the highest probability reversal scenario. The 1210/20 area looks like an important support zone. We would probably need to see the metal get closer to or above 1300 during this period to get excited about any potential short side setup.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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