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Price & Time: EUR/USD Crossroad

Price & Time: EUR/USD Crossroad

2014-06-09 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY turns at key resistance
  • Gold turn window mid-month
  • Price action in EUR/USD supporting of further strength

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: EUR/USD Crossroad

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY touched its highest level in over a month last week before encountering resistance near a confluence of Gann levels in the 102.80 area
  • Our near term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 102.80
  • An intetrim downside pivot is eyed around 102.00, but a daily close under 101.35 is really needed to confirm the start of something more serius on the downside
  • An important turn window is seen this week in the yen related to the 2011 low
  • A move over 102.80 will turn our near-term trend bias to positive, but a move over 103.15 is really needed to get us more excited about the upside

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while under 102.80.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

102.10

102.45

*102.80

103.15

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: EUR/USD Crossroad

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD fell to a 4-month low last week before rebounding near the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 1244
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the metal while below 1286
  • A close under 1244 is needed to trigger the next phase lower in Gold
  • An important turn window is seen around the middle of the month
  • A daily close over 1286 would turn us positive on the metal

AUD/USD Strategy: Square. May look to sell on strength.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1220/10

*1244

1256

1260

*1286

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

Price & Time: EUR/USD Crossroad

The cynical low in the euro I was looking for around the ECB meeting last week came to fruition although from a lower level than I was initially thinking as the exchange rate briefly undercut the 4th square root relationship of the year's high at 1.3520 before finally reversing. However, the nature of the price action seems to confirm the importance of the timing last week and favors general strength for at least a few more days. Key resistance is seen around 1.3675 with a move over this level needed to get me more excited about something more meaningful occurring on the upside A daily close under 1.3585 would do some serious damage to the near-term positive view and raise the possibility that the exchange rate is resuming its downtrend ahead of schedule.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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