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Price & Time: Crunch Time?

Price & Time: Crunch Time?

2014-06-03 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Crunch Time?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY cleared the neckline of a multi-week inverse head & shoulders pattern yesterday to trade at its highest level in a month and test the 50% retracement of the April/May decline
  • Our near term trend bias is lower in the rate while below 102.75
  • The 101.75 area is interim support, but weakness under the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 is needed to signal the start of any sort of meaningful downside move
  • A fairly important cycle turn window is eyed this week
  • A daily close over 102.75 will shift the near-term trend bias higher.

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.75. Would need to see 103.15 give way to get more excited about any potential upside.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

101.75

102.40

*102.75

*103.15

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Price & Time: Crunch Time?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD has moved sharply higher over the past couple of days from just above key support near 1.0800
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Funds while below the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.0915
  • Weakness under 1.0855 is desperately needed to re-instill downside momentum in the pair
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen over the next couple of days
  • A daily close over 1.0915 will shift our near-term trend bias positive

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the short side while 1.0915 continues to hold on a closing basis.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0810

1.0855

1.0915

*1.0915

1.0950

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

Price & Time: Crunch Time?

I came in yesterday and read multiple notes from banks, strategists & traders suggesting the only way for the SPX to go from here is up. Perhaps they are right, but such assuredness on market direction almost always scares me to the bone. If you read my piece with any regularity you will know that I clearly believe in the cyclical nature of the markets. When conviction and certainty rise to such levels it is almost always time to begin questioning the logic of the crowd. I have been focused on the middle of July as the next big important “time test” for the equity market, but now I have my doubts as to whether the market can get there without at least a minor washout first (perhaps leading to a secondary high in mid-July?). A confluence of decent Gann & Pi cycle relationships over the next few days coupled with complacency galore in various sentiment metrics (VIX DSI sub 10% bulls for instance) has me on the lookout for a turn of some kind this week. Gann analysis suggests the area between 1918 and 1930 is critical and a clear potential reaction zone. Weakness under 1899 would confirm at least a minor high.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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